Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses. Academic Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

publication date

  • November 9, 2020

Identity

PubMed Central ID

  • PMC7712303

Scopus Document Identifier

  • 85086133714

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1002/jmv.26041

PubMed ID

  • 33182403

Additional Document Info

volume

  • 8

issue

  • 4